UFC 74: Couture vs. Gonzaga
This fight wasn’t supposed to happen. No way was everybody’s hero, Randy Couture, supposed to face Gabriel Gonzaga this weekend for the UFC heavyweight title.
Back in April, Gonzaga was supposed to be a warm up for Mirko Cro Cop, who, at the time, was arguably the world’s most dangerous human.
But if you listened to Couture, who was doing commentary for the fight, Gonzaga wasn’t easily dismissed. Couture even said he’d prefer to fight Cro Cop over Gonzaga and that was before Gonzaga utterly destroyed Cro Cop with a vicious kick to the head.
So this weekend in UFC 74: Respect, the question isn’t whether Couture, 44, can win the fight but whether he finishes it conscious. Couture is only a slight underdog (+105 on Bodog) but there’s no reason to think that the UFC Hall of Famer can dominate the 28-year-old Gonzaga.
Which, of course, is all the more reason to put some money on Couture. There’s not a smarter fighter in MMA than Couture. He’s had five months to train and dissect Gonzaga’s game. If he loses, it won’t be because he was unprepared or out of shape.
Can Gonzaga catch Couture with a leg kick like he did Cro Cop? Can Gonzaga, a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt, take Couture to the ground? If he can do either of those, Gonzaga should win. But don’t count Captain America out just yet. He is battle tested and has experience in title fights. On the other hand, this is the biggest fight of Gonzaga’s career and he is bound to be a little tight.
UFC 74 is loaded with great fights.
Georges St.-Pierre starts his comeback against Josh Koscheck, another one of those cocky guys from The Ultimate Fighter who is ripe for an ass whipping.
St.-Pierre (-220 on Bodog) should have no problem with Koscheck, despite Koscheck’s superior grappling skills. Koscheck, who has questioned St-Pierre’s heart is no match for the Canadian’s overall game. Throw out St.-Pierre’s TKO loss to Matt Serra in April, this welterweight bout doesn’t get out of the second round.
My upset pick of the night is Patrick Cote over Kendall Grove in a middleweight matchup.
I love Grove. He has a bright future in the UFC but I think he’s another one of those TUF guys who isn’t quite ready for prime time. Does Grove really deserve to be such a big favorite (-220 on Bodog)? Sure, on paper Cote looks like a dog with only one win in his last five fights.
But this is only Grove’s fourth fight in the Octagon and he’s facing a fighter who will be fighting for his UFC life. If Cote loses, he’s done.
Look at Cote’s losses and you’ll see that he didn’t have any stiffs. He lost to Tito Ortiz in a fight he took on short notice. Got submitted by Joe Doerksen in the last round after having the fight in hand. And got ripped off in a split decision loss to Chris Leben.
Don’t forget that he choked out a very tough Jason MacDonald in a Mixed Fighting Championship bout in 2006.
So, root for Grove but put your money on Cote.
