Betting window: UFC 74
Saturday’s UFC 74 event has one of the most exciting cards in a long time. Zuffa is certainly giving the pay-per-view audience its money’s worth. It is also presenting some tough choices for bettors because some of the more exciting fights are ones that they probably should pass on. But you’re a gambler, right?
The lines below are from Bodog as of 6 p.m. Thursday evening.
Randy Couture (-105) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (-125)
This line has moved closer to even in the last day as some of the action has shifted to Couture. I think Couture’s preparation and experience will give him the edge. Gonzaga is dangerous and can end the fight standing or on the ground. The conventional thinking is that Couture doesn’t want to go to the ground because of Gonzaga’s Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills but that’s exactly where Couture will put this fight. He’ll control it, grind it out and wear Gonzaga down.
Buzz Pick: Couture in a decision. Bet it light, if only because you can’t bring yourself to root against Couture.
Georges St.-Pierre (-220) vs. Josh Koscheck (+180)
Don’t believe the Joe Rogan hype (he gets paid to do that) on Koscheck. He’s an excellent wrestler and a well-conditioned athlete but he’s not in the class of St.-Pierre. Someday, maybe. Throw out St.-Pierre’s TKO loss to Matt Serra. He was unprepared and took Serra too lightly. That’s not going to be the case this time. Instead, look back to his demolition of former champ Matt Hughes to see what St.-Pierre can do when he’s on top of his game.
Buzz Pick: St.-Pierre by TKO. Bet it heavy. You’ll need it to make up for the rest of the picks.
Roger Huerta (-450) vs. Alberto Crane (+300)
Huerta should win this fight. He’s the more experienced and more skilled fighter. But this is an intriguing match because there are some intangibles here, as I mentioned in my earlier post. Once again, Huerta is facing an opponent who has nothing to lose. That can sometimes be an advantage to the underdog. Will Huerta come out flat like he did against Doug Evans. If that happens, he could very well find himself submitted early. The safe bet here is lay heavy on Huerta. But I like the odds I’m getting for the upset.
Buzz Pick: Take the gamble and bet on Crane. It’s only money.
Kendall Grove (-260) vs. Patrick Cote (+200)
It is hard not to root for Grove. He’s got that laid-back Hawaiian demeanor and a very nice ground game that will only get better. On paper, this is a no-brainer, considering that Cote has only one victory in his last five fights. But Cote has had some tough luck and is a better fighter than his record indicates. Still, for Cote to win this he’s going to have to come out strong because the crowd will be heavily behind Grove from the beginning. Like it or not, that can have an impact on the judges in a close fight. I think this fight is a pick ‘em but I’ll take Cote because of the payout.
Buzz pick: Cote in an upset. You’ll thank me later.
Renato Sobral (-220) vs. David Heath (+180)
This depends on which Sobral shows up. The guy who got stopped early the last two times he entered the Octagon or the guy who looked like a world beater before that. Shame on me for thinking he actually had a chance to pull the upset against Chuck Lidell. What’s that saying about fool me once? Still, Sobral wins this one easily.
Buzz Pick: Bet the house on Sobral and then be afraid. Be very afraid.
