Time to ante up

Less than 24 hours until UFC 74: Respect kicks off at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas and who can sleep?

Here’s a breakdown of how I’m betting my $1,000 for tomorrow’s fight, followed by a wrapup of what other bloggers predict.

• Randy Couture (-105) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (-125): $200 on Couture.
• Georges St.-Pierre (-260) vs. Josh Koshcheck (+200): $400 on St.-Pierre.
• Roger Huerta (-450) vs. Alberto Crane (+300): $100 on Crane.
• Joe Stevenson (-285) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (+225): pass.
• Kendall Grove (-260) vs. Patrick Cote (+200): $100 on Cote.
• Thales Leites (-290) vs. Ryan Jensen (+230): pass.
• Renato Sobral (-220) vs. David Heath (+180): $200 on Sobral.
• Frank Mir (-155) vs. Antoni Hardonk (+125): pass.
• Clay Guida (-125) vs. Marcus Aurelio (-105): pass.

Yes, my reputation is on the line. But fortunately, since this blog is less than a week old, I have no reputation to risk. Also, these aren’t necessarily my predictions, just how I’m going to bet it. For example, I don’t expect Crane to defeat Huerta but I think it’s a nice value bet.

Elsewhere on the web, there seems to be no clear consensus on the two headline bouts.

Joe Fernandez on Fightin’ Words predicts a Couture victory and sticks with the favorites on the rest of the main card, though he plays both side of the fence with Couture, saying the champ will win if he doesn’t get knocked out early. “Gonzaga (8-1, 4-0 UFC) has never been three complete rounds in the UFC. Yes, he’s won impressively in all four of his UFC fights, but it’s Rounds 4 and 5 that make a championship match different.”

Desert Dog on UFC Mania and on his own blog, UFC Betting, thinks Couture and St.-Pierre will pull off wins. He also says Huerta is ripe for an upset. “If Heurta makes a mistake, Crane is the type of fighter who is technically able to take advantage of it and pull off a very surprising finish.”

Performify at UFC Junkie thinks the younger Gonzaga will be too much for Couture to handle. He also thinks Koscheck’s superior wrestling skills makes him a smart bet for an upset. “Koscheck has a chance to win this fight, without question. I think Koscheck gains advantage in that its not a five round title fight — to ride this to a unanimous decision he only has to control two rounds instead of three.”

Dr. J at MMA HQ predicts the favorites are going to sweep the card. “While I’ll be pulling for Couture to win, my head is telling me to go with Gonzaga.”

Justin at the MMA Betting Blog says the smart money is on Gonzaga to win the heavyweight title but he also thinks Koshcheck might pull the upset. “I think there are enough questions about St. Pierre’s ability to defend Koscheck on the ground to warrant a small wager on Josh.”

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