UFC 75 title match a tossup

Last-day wagering on the Quinton Jackson and Dan Henderson matchup at UFC 75 has the fight a tossup on Bodog, Sports Book, Super Book and Betting Express where both fighters are listed at -115 on the money line.

(That means you’d have to bet $115 on either Jackson or Henderson to win $100. Conversely, if the money line were +115, you’d win $115 on a $100 bet.)

Just last week, Jackson was seen as a 58 percent favorite to retain his light heavyweight title on Bodog and Sports Book.

I thought Jackson would have remained the popular betting choice up to fight time based on his knockout of Chuck Liddell in UFC 71 (See my earlier post). Jackson’s an exciting fighter and gives damn good quotes. He also made a recent round of promotional appearances, including showing up on ESPN’s Cold Pizza.

All that, combined with Henderson having fought mostly overseas for the last decade, should have kept Jackson somewhere in the -140 to -180 range, or so I thought.

In fact, Jackson remains at -140 on Bet Us. (Meaning, you’d have to wager $140 on Jackson to win $100). He also remains the favorite on U.K. bookmaker Bet Fair with odds that translate to about a -130 money line. Those are the exception, however, and not the rule.

So why the betting swing towards Henderson?

The majority of bettors base their decisions on emotion, more than anything else. This may be a case of Henderson’s backstory hitting a chord with fans.

The fact that he’s an underdog and seen as this dedicated family man, whose wife had a c-section so that he could make the trip to the U.K. in time, is pretty compelling.

On the other hand, Jackson won the title by beating, arguably, the UFC’s most popular fighter in Liddell. There’s bound to be some backlash toward him because of that. He’s also a bachelor with a flamboyant personality inside and outside of the cage. This is starting to sound like Rocky and Creed in II.

Let’s also not discount that Henderson is a hell of a fighter and has plenty of his Pride video clips available on the web.

I placed my bet on Henderson while he was still returning even money. But if I was placing a bet now, I would have to put the money on Jackson.

This isn’t a case of being wishy washy. But if you want to be successful at betting MMA in the long run, you have to determine what the “true” odds are and then compare it to the actual odds being offered at whatever book you do business with.

In this case, I think Jackson should be a 56 percent favorite or a -130 money line. (You can find money line converters on the web. I use the one at Smart Capper). The odds at Bodog, however, are paying as if Jackson were a 53.5 percent favorite. In this case, you’re getting a 2 1/2 percent edge by taking Jackson at the -115 Bodog money line.

This wasn’t the case when I placed my bet on Henderson. At that point, Jackson’s money line was at -130 or about a 56 percent favorite.

Here’s how some of the other bloggers are predicting the Jackson – Henderson bout:

LR at the MMA Analyst picks Jackson by TKO in 3. “Rampage is a very underrated fighter. He has excellent takedowns, excellent defense, and he can really do damage in the clinch.”

Richard Pauley at Ultimate MMA Videos is also picking Jackson. “Jackson seems more focused than he’s ever been and in my opinion Hendo is breeming with overconfidence and cockiness.”

Brett at UFC Fight Blog is taking Henderson. “Henderson’s well-rounded wrestling and grappling ability coupled with his strong right hand gives him the edge in my book.”

Ironman at Prognostication Station thinks Henderson’s “skill, endurance and power” gives him the edge.

And then there’s Peformify at MMA Junkie who says the fight is a literal coin flip. The real winner, he says, will be the UFC if Jackson-Henderson lives up to its potential and wins new fans via the “free” cable broadcast.