Elite XC: Lawler vs. Rua (the other one)
There’s a nice card on deck Saturday night for MMA fans with access to Showtime.
I’m too cheap to spring for anything more than HBO but if Elite XC continues to improve its offerings, I may have to bite the bullet and upgrade my cable package.
The headline bout has “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler (-200) squaring off against Murilo “Ninja” Rua (+160) in a middleweight Elite XC title fight. Of all the fights on the card this is the most evenly matched and the only one worth betting. In the other fights on the card, the odds are so out of whack that there’s really no sense in betting either side. That doesn’t mean there won’t be some exciting matchups with Nick Diaz, Jake Shields and Gina Carano all on the card and all huge favorites to win their bouts. (If you like to root for the underdog, they’re returning great value but I can’t see any upsets here. )
While Lawler and Rua are both coming off 3-fight win streaks, oddsmakers are favoring Lawler in this matchup. Lawler is an aggressive, some would say reckless, fighter who loves to throw the knees. He’s a Miletich Fighting Systems guy, so you know he has trained with the best. He’s got decent takedown skills but also loves to bang.
Lawler’s problem has been a lack of consistency. While Lawler has wins over Frank Trigg and Chris Lytle on his record, he has also lost to Nick Diaz, Jason Miller, Pete Spratt and Evan Tanner.
Rua, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua’s older brother, is the Elite XC middleweight champ. He’s out of Brazil’s Chute Box Academy where they produce top-notch Muay Thai and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighters. Rua is no exeption. While not as accomplished as Shogun, Ninja has been been through the Pride gauntlet having fought Denis Kang, Paul Filho, Quinton Jackson, Kevin Randleman, Ricardo Arona and Dan Henderson. That’s a pretty impressive list of opponents, even if he did lose to all of them.
Is it just coincidence that Lawler rhymes with brawler? If this fight stays up, then it could be a tough night for Rua.
Still, Rua probably won’t try to trade punches for 25 minutes (Or at least we hope he doesn’t). He’ll try to work some takedowns and soften Lawler up in the clinch.
At +160, it’s hard to pass on Rua here. He’s been through some wars (he took Jackson and Henderson to split decisions) and at only 27, he’s still a young guy who is coming into his prime.
Buzz pick: 200 units on Rua. I don’t like rooting against Lawler but the odds are right to go the other way.
Knock yourself out fellas: