UFC Fight Night: A good start

Wednesday’s UFC Fight Night kicks off a furious couple of days of MMA action that ends with Saturday’s UFC 76 showdown in Anaheim’s Honda Center. In between, there’s the season premiere of The Ultimate Fighter 6 following Fight Night and the International Fight League championships on Thursday .

Here’s our recommendations for the Fight Night card. Remember, that sometimes we recommend a fighter purely because of the odds he’s getting and not necessarily because we think he’s a lock to win the bout.

To some people, that’s a silly, counter-intuitive approach. Their philosophy is to always bet the fighter they think is going to win, no matter the odds. While that might seem like common sense, we don’t think it’s the best way to make money over the long run.

The number one rule in any kind of gambling is to always look for situations where you have a statistical advantage and then do your best to exploit the situation. In blackjack that’s why you double down in certain situations, in poker it’s why you calculate your outs and how much money is in the pot before calling a raise and in sports betting it’s why you put a bet on a fighter you think has a better chance of winning than what odds makers are giving him.

Kenny Florian (-165) vs. Din Thomas (+135)

This is likely a title elimination bout, with the winner possibly facing B.J. Penn if Sean Sherk’s appeal for his positive steroid test is unsuccessful.

Both of these TUF alums have taken different paths to get here — Thomas is the veteran who has fought in mixed martial arts for the last decade and Florian is the relative newcomer, who in his short career has already had one shot at a lightweight title. Ironically, there is also a striking similarity in their careers.

Florian is in the same place Thomas was in 2002, when Thomas went into UFC 39 to face Japanese grappler Caol Uno. The winner between Thomas and Uno would fight for the title.

Going into the Uno fight, Thomas had lost to Penn the year before but had gone on to win 3 straight fights, exactly what Florian has done after losing to Sherk in UFC 64.

Like Thomas in 2002, we think Florian is going to come up short.

While Florian has a better ground game, that advantage is often neutralized by an opponent’s ability to avoid the takedown. In this case, we don’t think Florian’s advantage on the ground is big enough to sway this fight in his favor. Thomas is no slouch as a wrestler and, like Florian, holds a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt.

We reviewed some of the keys for both fighters in our earlier post. While this will be an evenly fought match, we think Thomas holds both an edge in intangibles and in his ability to keep this fight on its feet.

Buzz pick: Like Creed told Rocky at the end of Rocky III: Din. Din.

Terry Martin (-210) vs. Chris Leben (+170)

By dropping from light heavyweight to middleweight, Martin brings some heavy hands and a renewed confidence against opponents who are finally his own size. He knocked his last two opponents out in the first round.

Leben really hasn’t been the same since he got KTFO by Anderson Silva in UFC Fight Night 5. He says that going into this match, he’s a different fighter. And promises that if it’s a brawl Martin wants, it’s a brawl he’ll get.

Martin is a 68 percent favorite, which is about right. If anything, it might be a little lower than it should be because of the number of people who will bet against Leben soley because they would like to see him get his ass kicked again.

There was a time when Leben’s jaw was considered his biggest asset. Silva took that myth away.

Buzz pick: Leben is going to be Leaving Las Vegas for EliteXC after Martin beats him down.

Nate Diaz (-200) vs. Junior Assuncao (+160)

Diaz is probably going to be in older brother Nick’s shadow for a long time. If he’s going to step out, he needs to win matches like this to make a name for himself. While he’s the TUF Season 5 winner, he benefited from Manvel Gamburyan quitting in the 2nd round because of a disolocated shoulder.

We think this might be the perfect match for Assuncao to steal a victory. Diaz is listed as a 67 percent favorite, mostly because of the exposure he received on TUF and because he’s got the same kind of lanky frame and BJJ game as his highly-regarded brother.

This is another fight where the odds should be closer than where they’re set.

Buzz pick: Assuncao has a chance of making a Jackass out of u-and-me but he’s worth a value bet in this situation.

Nate Quarry (-225) vs. Pete Sell (+185)

There sure are a lot of Pete Sell bashers out there. We think that part of the reason is the backlash of not fulfilling his promise after his upset of Phil Baroni in UFC 51. Nobody likes to be let down, which is what Sell has done in losing three of his four fights since submitting Baroni.

But is he so bad that Quarry should be a 69 percent favorite, despite not having fought in two years? Some would say yes, due to the fact that the last time Quarry and Sell met, Quarry scored a knockout 42 seconds into the first round.

That was very controversial stoppage, however. A lot of people think that referee Cecil Peoples was too quick to step in.

Sell’s loss to Scott Smith is also another that’s hard to hold against him. Those guys came out throwing bombs and it looked like Sell was going end the fight after a huge blow to Smith’s midsection. As Sell rushed in to finish off a doubled over Smith, he got hit with what might have been the knockout punch of the year.

We think Sell is the card’s blue-plate special. He might not look real appetizing but at this price, he’s worth the money.

Quarry is making his first fight since Rich Franklin knocked him out in November 2005. After that fight, Quarry had back surgery and has been on a long rehab.

Buzz pick: Like Charlie Sheen said in Wall Street: Sell. Sell. Sell.

Here’s how we’re going to bet our 1000 units:

300 units on Thomas @ +135

300 units on Martin @ -210

100 units on Assuncao @ +160

300 units on Sell @ +185

Update: Here’s how some other bloggers predict it.

Sam Caplan has a post at MMAJunkie where he picks Florian to pull out a decision: “If there’s something broke in Florian’s game, he goes out and fixes it. What was a weakness in one fight suddenly becomes a strength in his next.”

L.R. at MMA Analyst says it will be a close fight but Thomas’ overall game will prevail.

Desert Dog posts at UFC Mania agrees with us in picking Thomas: “When it comes right down to it, I see this fight as a coin toss, and when one side of the coin is worth more than the other that’s where I’ll put my money.”

Zewkey is picking Florian: “I am impressed the manner in which Florian prepares, he’s a serious pro all the way and that’s why he will win this one.”